Baseball betting advice comes with major league wagering tips. This helpful guide is for those who know little about this once favorite sport.
Here is a concise step by step wagering guide.
After reading this advice column, you may still feel the urge to place a wager on a baseball game, particularly on the World Series.
Baseball is easy to bet and collect, as opposed to football and basketball, where one can get mixed up by bad advice, point spreads and other miscalculations.
When betting baseball, one simply bets money on the outcome of the contest. In addition, the betting season lasts longer, which means more matches and bigger chances to go home after winning money on storied rivalries.
For the benefit of those seeking advice, who do not already know, the Point Spread is the most common betting type offered in both football and basketball.
The sportsbook spreads the odds of a certain matchup by subtracting points from the favorite.
The favored team is the one most likely to prevail. By giving points to the underdog, which is expected to lose, the matchup has been equalized.
If the favorite is a 10 point fave, it MUST WIN THE GAME by a minimum of ten points, or the Winner will be the Underdog.
The main difference between baseball betting and other team sports, such as football and basketball, is that the latter use point spreads. Baseball uses the moneyline.
What is a Moneyline?
When betting baseball, the sportsbook sets the odds strictly on the outcome of the match. In order to even the action, bettors would have to risk more money on the favorite and risk less on the underdog. This is called the money line.
For example, if the moneyline is minus 170 on the favorite and plus 150 on the underdog, then you would have to bet 170 dollars on the favorite in order to earn 100 dollars (plus you would get back your original stake of $170). On the other hand, if you should choose to bet 100 dollars on the underdog, you would net 150 dollars if the underdog does indeed win the game. You would collect a total of $250 (getting back your original $100 wager PLUS the $150 you earned because the team won outright.
The difference between the minus 170 on the favorite and the plus 150 on the underdog is known as the twenty cent line. If the moneyline was minus on the favorite and plus 150 on the underdog, it is called the ten cent line or dime line. The fifteen cent line is also common in betting on this sport.
Sportsbooks also offer total bets and runlines when making wagers.
1) Total Bets:
These wagers (TOTALS) are based on the sum of the runs scored by each of the teams. For example, if the sportsbook sets the over/under total of a match as 7, the over collects if the sum total of the runs scored by both teams exceeds 7, and the under collects if its TOTAL sum is less than 7. If the game ends with exactly 7 runs scored between the two teams, the outcome becomes a PUSH (the Totals bet was neither won nor lost).
2) The Run Line:
The Runline wager is a variation of a point spread. When you are betting on the run line, you are gambling on whether one of the teams wins by more than one run, which is marked as minus 1.5 or stays within one run, marked as plus 1.5.
Although the money line makes wagering simpler than football and basketball, it causes the payoffs calculation to be more complicated:
1) In order to calculate the payoff when wagering on the chalk you should add 1 point to the favorite price and divide it with the favored price.
2) In order to calculate the payoff when wagering on the underdog you should add 1 to the underdog price.
Or Better Yet... let the Sportsbook do the complicated calculations, because soon enough you will be gambling on Parleys, Round Robins and Teasers. You would need a math degree from M.I.T. to calculate a payoff after you win, or at least a good hand held calculator with a long battery life. It can get complicated once you begin to stray from the basics.
The most important factor for determining a fair price on a run line is whether the home boys are favored and if the visitor is getting more than 1.5 runs.
Home teams, most often, win several more 1-run Games than the visitor. The reason for this is because the Game ends anytime the home team
has a lead entering the bottom of the ninth inning.
If the Game is tied at the end of 9 innings, there is only a slim chance ( 7% ) the homeboys will prevail by more than ONE score.
Conversely, a visiting team that scores 1 run will usually attempt to continue scoring to build up a cushion.
This one difference means a lot in pricing the odds. Home teams win by 1-run about 17% of the time,
while the visitors manage to win by 1-run just 11 percent.
Another important edge when pricing a runline is... the TOTAL SCORE. The lower the total, the more likely it will be that the event will end as a 1-run Winner for the favorite.
While a Game total in no way guarantees that many runs will be scored, it is a pretty good indicator of how much offense will be in play.
For example, a matchup between strong pitching teams may have a sum total of 7 runs. Assuming the home team wins and only 7 runs are scored, there are only Four possible scores: 4-3; 5-2; 6-1 and 7-0.
On the flip side, if 11 runs are scored, there are six possible winning scores for the home team: 11-0; 10-1; 9-2; 8-3; 7-4 and 6-5. There are 50% more ways for the home team to win.
Oddly enough, these lower-totaled Games see home teams win by 1 score nearly 50% more often than those events with totals above 11.
Another crucial factor to consider is: how heavily is the chalk favored? Those who are heavily favored are more likely to win by EXACTLY 1 , than a team closer to Pickem.
This is almost counter-intuitive because one expects good opponents to blow out the weaker. On the other hand, the Favored foe has to prevail BEFORE it can win by exactly one.
The numbers do not lie and there is more value playing the runline against BIG favorites.
To get a sporting edge against the bookmakers, you should also take a look at relief pitching. If the Game is close after 5 or 6 innings,
the bullpens will come in to play, making +1.5 runs more valuable. Similarly, laying 1.5 runs, you will want the opposing group to have a weak bullpen.
Understanding this angle can give you a winning advantage, especially against the opening numbers.
Hopefully, you now have a clear understanding of what factors go into making a runline. Successful baseball handicappers usually have some skill at this,
and most groups of professional bettors have at least one number cruncher among them. Or, you can do some number crunching of your own by analyzing
which opponents have the hot bats, and who are in scorng slumps. Learn to spot these mismatches and learn to ride the wave when wagering MLB.
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